Archive for the ‘ATP Race’ Category

Baghdatis gave Gasquet Shanghai spot

November 3, 2007

What a shame! He was up a break in the second and one set up. Now Gasquet might be slightly less motivated in the match starting soon, and a tough Nalbandian (recent double Federer beater) will be on his toes on every shot.

I think the spot is deserved for Gasquet, as I doubt Baghdatis would make a good performance in the Cup. Gasquet should though, try to get the most out of this match and a potential final against Nadal tomorrow. It will boost his confidence quite a chunk.


Shanghai roster almost ready

November 3, 2007

Gasquet beat Murray and moved to the sweet #8 spot which will give him access to China.
Nalbandian is out as he needs 60+ points, and he can only get 55 more.
Baghdatis is still in, but he needs to win the tournament while Gasquet must lose against Nalbandian. Statistically and realistically Gasquet seems to be the 8th in this year’s race.

But… there has to be played at least one more match to get it decided.

The downside of 2 or 3 dominant players…

October 31, 2007

The race to Shanghai is quite exiting, isn’t it? It would be a lot more competition and fighting if there were 8 spots toward the end of the season, not 1 or 2 like we have had for a few weeks now. Federer and Nadal in reality qualified sometime in June, Djokovic was really secure after Wimbledon.

The race for the last spot is really on. Maybe the last two spots, who knows.
Those with a good shot are:
Haas, Robredo, Murray, Berdych, Gasquet and Blake.
Berdych has a good shot, Murray needs to overcome Santoro but really close now, Gasquet can still do it. I think Haas will lose against Youzhny and Youzhny will be in the race if he makes the SF.
I think Gonzo takes the 7th and Murray takes the last one. If not Berdych can do it.

BTW… Santoro is a magician. How effective is that two-handed forehand slice? Wow!
he played great, but Djokovic looked bored and careless at times. Don’t know if the numbers 6-3, 6-2 really means anything to him.

Will Gonzalez qualify?

October 30, 2007

Well… he is history in Paris, taken out by Youzhny today and got only 1 point. That might be enough, but now his spot is open for anyone who can do some damage in Paris. Murray? Haas just won and got 15 points I think. Robredo? Blake? Plenty of players who can get around SF which brings 50 points. Gonzalez will be knocked out if two of these make SFs.

Race still open and we are in the final lap!

Let the last week of tennis begin!

October 29, 2007

For all players but 8. Paris is the end of the road for some 100+ players who play only ATP-level. I thought Federer would take a rest this week, but it seems that he wants to do all of the “mandatory” tournaments this year. If he takes this one too, 2007 has been almost as good as 2006 for the great Roger.

For Federer, the only threat (if he really is a threat anymore) is Nalbandian. We now know Nalbandian can beat Federer, but can he do a “Canas”. Something tells me… NO
Berdych needs to overcome both Ferrer and Federer if he wants to qualify for Shanghai
Murray, the poor bastard, must beat Djokovic to make it. Of course, these are estimates as the last (2) spots for Shanghai will depend on a lot of other players and their performance.

Blake has a tough draw too, so Blake’s way to Shanghai is longer than for example Haas. He has a couple of Qualifiers and Gonzo to shoot down for Shanghai. Ljubicic get Davydenko, which I think he’ll manage and can possibly qualify for Shanghai this year too.

Robredo has a fair chance as well, only big obstacle is Canas who needs to win the whole thing to really be sure for a spot in China.

If Federer and Nadal are motivated enough, it seems like a new encounter between the grand slammers on Sunday. Federer will of course win it…right? gives an updated week 4 week overview of the race standings. As you can see there are plenty of players who still have a fair chance.
I think that Gonzalez will lose his spot only if he loses first and two other players get to the Final. SF gives 45 points and he is 51 ahead. He will not make it if for example Blake meets Haas in the final and he loses first match….. I think

My prediction is that Gonzo will buy his ticket this evening and joining him later this week will be either Murray or Haas. Hopefully Haas has a stable stomach all week!

Ferrer qualifies

October 28, 2007

leaving two open spots. These are up for grabs at Paris and there are still several players who are in reach. I think Gonzalez might hold on to at LEAST 8th spot.

Today’s finals:

I’m gonna watch Mr. Federer play

Lyon, St Petersburg and Basel…

October 23, 2007

… to decide the race? May very well be. Ferrer needs just a few points to qualify and is 3rd seed in Basel. He should be ready for Shanghai. I think it’s too hard to see who the other two players are, but Gonzalez has a good opportunity in Basel as well as 2nd seed. The last spot is quite open. Haas is in trouble, after seemingly pulling out of Lyon.

In Lyon there’s Roddick, Robredo on opposite ends. Gasquet, Ljubicic, Monaco++ joins them. Other players to look out for is Grosjean (possible 2nd round against Roddick), Tsonga (already in 2nd), Mahut better at home?, Clement better at home?.
Lot of question marks, but I think Roddick has a good chance at the title, if Gasquet plays the Wimbledon match again, he could steal it from him.

In Basel, Roger Federer plays for the 2nd time in a row. He has “rested” a lot this year so this is a surprise actually. Strong players meet in Basel: Gonzalez, Ferrer, Blake, Berdych, Canas+++
In addition, there’s Kiefer, who jumped like 60 places on the ranking this week, Karlovic is always a threat, Nalbandian is back and dangerous, Wawrinka is at home but need to overcome Nalby in the first round. Lopez, Dancevic, Baghdatis, Nieminen…. a lot of good players.

In Russia the prize money is clearly largest this week, but the player field is the least attractive. Davydenko, Murray, Youzhny, Starace, Tursunov, Verdasco and more are top seeds. Then there’s Volandri, Gulbis (in 2nd), Bjorkman, Ancic, Mirnyi… and many more

My predicting skills are evidently poor but here goes nothing:
Lyon: Roddick?
Basel: Federer?
St Petersburg: Murray?