Big 3 and the rest…

We are all impressed with Federer’s incredible 4 year on top run. We are also impressed with Nadal’s #2 since 2005 and the fact that he probably is the most improved player on the tour. Going from struggling on hard and grass, to become the #2 on both. This year we’ve had another addition to the “consistency club”. Djokovic started out with a slam, closely followed by a series of SF and F heading onto grass. Wimbledon is perhaps the most disapointing result for him, in the sense that every player seems to put Wimbledon very high on their list of prioritys.

Although Federer has lost to several players this year, as opposed to the previous 4 years, he still is the best in the world on the 52-week basis. If it wasn’t for Djokovic, he would probably have beaten Tsonga in the final and won Aussie Open, even with the mono. The Fish and Roddick losses are a little more awkward, but the man had almost NO points to defend that month. For Roddick, it was very important that Federer was not in his best place this spring. Then came clay, and the points started to accumulate. Won Estoril, Nadal prevented him from MC title once again. Stepanek prevented him from winning in Rome. (Which I think he would have). Then Nadal x 2 in Hamburg and RG. Only to be followed by a record LOW 11-1 on grass. Are we really worried that Federer has lost it?! No way! He is still the best player out there, until proven otherwise. If he starts a phenomenal fall and gets his gold medal, there’s no way he will end the year as anything else but numero uno.

Nadal must be frustrated, even after Wimbledon. Although he has less points (much less) to defend the next couple of months, he is probably very aware that Federer might reach the finals of many tournaments to come. Probability that Nadal will do the same on his poorest surface is not as probable. So wait a few moore weeks before we change the positions on the rankings. Another thing is that not only will Nadal want the gold medal, but he will want to try to win the Davis Cup title, I assume. Spain is in a good position to win it all and he could go and focus on DC this fall, rather than risking playing too many tournaments. He was close to giving up his 2nd spot to the Djoker.

Djokovic on the other hand has a LOT of points to defend. First he has the Canada title and the USO final. Add a Vienna 250 pointer and he knows he cannot mess it up. Will he give it 100% for the medals? I don’t know, I thought he would do like Roddick. Skip Beijing and try to focus on USO. I assume that it’s not a bad move if you wanna win it. I hope the Beijing air doesn’t mess the already asthmatic-like character of Djokovic. If I was him, I would have stuck around in North America.

So who are the other jokers who want in on the action? The reason Ferrer is 4th, is primarily due to his very good form this time last year. USO SF is not easy to defend, and Cicy QF is probably hard too. He also has Tokyo(250) to defend later on. I can only assume that he too, will want to have SOME focus on the home tie against the US in September. Later on he will have a final in MC as well. Pressure is on Ferrer. I predict he will fall some more under 3000 points and fight with Davydenko and Roddick for the 4th spot.

Dayvdenko is the next joker. He skipped two straight tournaments, which is unusual for him. His either sick or hurt. I don’t think rest is on his program. I don’t see him repeating Miami, but there’s no telling where he could go, after such a good start to the 08 season.  But like Ferrer, he will have SF at USO, SF in Cincy and QF in Canada to defend. Pressure on him too. He will also lose some of these I think.

Roddick is a question mark. He seems to continue his problems with the back, or shoulder or whatever. If he’s 100% fit for the Canada, he will always be ahead of Ferrer and Dayvdenko in terms of favorite for SF, but not further. Same goes in Cincy. Cincy might be his this year, as most player might opt to skip it for Olympics prep. Or maybe Blake will take it, after having been close last year.

Blake is another dude to look out for. One of the best hard court players, without a doubt, is probably drooling before heading to Toronto. This week he’s in action in Indy and is favorite for the title. I think that he will pass Roddick and take the 6th spot, and hence (I assume) 6th seed for the Cincy Masters? Might turn out important, who knows?

Other players to look out for is certainly Nalby. He has two masters to defend. If he doesn’t, he will be heading back to 20-25. Very likely I believe. Murray, Gasquet and Stepanek seem to be heading in a good form. Gasquet acted well on grass, and the other two have played OK all season. All are potential upsetters.

Wawrinka is a question mark. He seems very good on clay, but I’ve never seen him play phenomenal on hard. Gonzo, Youzhny, Karlovic, Ancic, Verdasco++++ many Americans like Isner and Querrey are all likely to make decent results.

Based on points and how players usually perform, I think the ranking will be almost unchanged in the top 10. Maybe Gasquet could do some damage. Roddick should also improve from a poor 2000 points.

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2 Responses to “Big 3 and the rest…”

  1. da|v|ned Says:

    nice post you have got it right!and you are spot on with your analysis!is this an official atp blog?check out my page on Tennis and i also have atp on my blogroll.

  2. John Says:

    Sorry I had to ask in a post but its the only way I could figure I could get in touch. I have a tennis blog protennisaddict.com and have added yours to my blog roll. I was hoping we could help each other and you would consider adding mine. I would be very grateful!!!! If not I understand posting like this is annoying.

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