TOP Australian Open contenders (pre-Draw)

I had eight of these for US Open, and I don’t see the value in consuming any time on more than one or two. HOWEVER! If Federer would get beaten early on, there would be several potentials. Anyway here is the list of potenital Aussie Open champs 2008

1. Federer 90%
We are talking about the fact that there are more than one or two contenders for this title. But can you imagine Federer NOT winning it? Really hard. The appearance of Nalby might be an important factor, but Federer is statistically impossible to beat on hard court slams these days. Less prep and a troublesome stomach virus gives him only 90% chance from me.

2. Djokovic (3%)
I gave this guy no chance of making the final in New York due to the brutal draw and fatigue issues along the way. But not only did he make it, he had set points against Federer in a slam final! A 20-year old Djoker! Give me one good reason to doubt him again! I would have gone and said that the draw would be crucial, as he is 3rd seed, but he seems to beat anyone. I don’t know if not playing any event would profit him but after a lame end to 07, he should be fired up and ready to go.

3. Nalbandian 2,5%
IF he shows up, I put him right after Djokovic. Why? Because he seems to beat Federer all the time, but the lower ranked players are obviously more difficult for him. I haven’t heard any news on him but I assume he will not withdraw before the draw tomorrow. If he sees his name in the same half as Federer… please consider to play anyway! If he is 100% fit, this should be his chance (last?) to get a slam. He needs this momentum to succeed.

4. Andy Roddick 2%
Who? What? Am I crazy? I am still going to state that this man is a great underachiever, and that he deserves more titles and GS to his name. I would really be careful of placing him in front of Nadal, but if I would say which of the two is more motivated and ready for a hard court inferno in Melbourne, it’s Roddick. Ending last year with Davis Cup title cannot be a bad thing right? I would actually put him up there with Djokovic if he had a more balanced h2h against Federer, but unfortunately ending up in the same half (or quarter) just means bye bye.

5. Nadal 1,5%
Nadal is a slam winner and two time finalist. Only Federer has a better record in this department. BUT!!!! QF is his best in hard court slamming. That’s almost a curse cuz he’s so much better than most other players on hard court as well. Perhaps his knees only accepts one week of hard court play? Fact is that you cannot rule him out. He did great in Indian Wells last year and clearly has more potential than most other players. Results and questionable knees are the big setbacks for him.

6. Hewitt and Murray 1%
Couldn’t pick one of the two. They share this last spot for completely different reasons. Hewitt is at home and Aussie Open title must be number one priority on his list. Two finals say he deserves it. However his results in the last few GS and tournaments say NO WAY. I would give him more chance if he’d gone and completed the two Aussie tournaments with respectable results, like at least one title. The fact that he is losing to guys he should take down with ease is reason enough to doubt him. Even Guccione (125) beat him. What can you expect then? Murray is a different story. He has not performed better than R16 in a slam, but played very well in Doha and ended last year relatively good after missing out much of the early summer action. Murray is still very much work in progress, and needs time. Therefore only a shared 1% chance with Hewitt from me.


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2 Responses to “TOP Australian Open contenders (pre-Draw)”

  1. Tim Says:

    You are downright wrong.
    1. Federer
    2. Nadal
    3. Djokovic
    4. Nalbandian
    5. Roddick
    6. Ferrer
    Hewitt is out. He needed to stay on the level he was in his “younger” days. Murray is also far from any GS title.

  2. Femme Says:

    What about Gasquet?

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