Update after USO aka. Federer Open

Not too many months away now from the Masters Cup in Shanghai. I tried to figure out who will make it a few weeks ago, and after USO I think it’s even harder to predict the remaining 5 players who are fighting for the last points.
Current situation:
1. Roger Federer 1171 (Q)
2. Rafael Nadal 1012 (Q)
3. Novak Djokovic 802 (Q)
4. Nikolay Davydenko 485
5. Andy Roddick 466
6. David Ferrer 382
7. James Blake 321
8. Tommy Haas 316

There are actually a lot of players fighting for spots 4-8. I think Davydenko will make it. He haas too many shots at getting the required points by playing almost all the remaining tournaments. Andy Roddick usually makes a good run indoor, or at least good enough to make the cut. These two also have a 100+ gap so it would be a major upset for them not qualifying.
The big question is; can Ferrer keep playing this way through october? the SF of the USO helped him a lot, but he needs to keep getting points to make sure he stays around 400+ by the end. There are other bigger threats though. Blake played really well this time last year, won the Stockholm title and made the final of Shanghai. I would put my money on him again to make it in top 8.
Tommy Haas? Well, he’s sort of back in business, but I don’t see him going far in any of the remaining tournamnets. He seems to be playing really well in the slams this year, after a good start with the title in Memphis.
Carlos Moya is 1 point! behind Haas on 9th. He shouldn’t make it, but my going to QF of USO, he got himself 50 unexpected points for the race. He’s not the favorite, it needs to be said.
Ljubicic, Gonzalez, Robredo, Berdych…. and the list goes on. Mathematically any of these guys have a shot at going to top 8, but none of the 4 seems to be on a roll. I though I’d give Youzhny the last top 8 spot, but he made a short run at the USO and needs to really play well the next couple of months to stand a chance. Actually, I think even Lleyton on 19th can still make it (correct me if I’m wrong). He has 256. Let’s say the cut is around 400+. He can win a masters title (or two) and he’s good to go.

Here’s the list I think we’ll see at the start of November:
1. Federer
2. Nadal
3. Djokovic
4. Roddick
5. Davydenko
6. Blake
7. Ferrer
8. Ljubicic
(Fighting Ljubicic is Berdych and Youzhny, MAYBE even Moya)

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