What a shame! He was up a break in the second and one set up. Now Gasquet might be slightly less motivated in the match starting soon, and a tough Nalbandian (recent double Federer beater) will be on his toes on every shot.
I think the spot is deserved for Gasquet, as I doubt Baghdatis would make a good performance in the Cup. Gasquet should though, try to get the most out of this match and a potential final against Nadal tomorrow. It will boost his confidence quite a chunk.
Gasquet beat Murray and moved to the sweet #8 spot which will give him access to China.
Nalbandian is out as he needs 60+ points, and he can only get 55 more.
Baghdatis is still in, but he needs to win the tournament while Gasquet must lose against Nalbandian. Statistically and realistically Gasquet seems to be the 8th in this year’s race.
But… there has to be played at least one more match to get it decided.
Different meanings in different sports, but I think October describes it well. Why top seeds and key players who need points to get to Shanghai don’t perform? Really don’t understand…
Perhaps those who spent the first 8 months to relax have started to take advantage of tired higher ranked players… or is it this incredible depth in the ATP?
Ferrer is out, Robredo (2nd seed) is out, Roddick is out, Haas had stomach problems?… I don’t know if I have a valid point, but this time of season looks more shaky than any other.
And I cannot predict Roddick (top seed) as winner of Lyon when he gets beaten by a 35 year old local in 3 sets. Either impressive by Santoro or so much more dissapointing by Roddick. Not that Santoro isn’t a good player; he really is, but somehow people excpect Roddick to win most 1st rounds he plays.
No other upsets so in the other two tournaments I think my picks still go. For Lyon I want to say Gasquet. But first he has to overcome Tsonga… if Tsonga wins that one, he can go all the way. I don’t know, and I don’t feel like predicting cuz I’ll mess it up anyways.
Meanwhile, I am still waiting for Paris, Shanghai and the 2009 ATP calendar.
… to decide the race? May very well be. Ferrer needs just a few points to qualify and is 3rd seed in Basel. He should be ready for Shanghai. I think it’s too hard to see who the other two players are, but Gonzalez has a good opportunity in Basel as well as 2nd seed. The last spot is quite open. Haas is in trouble, after seemingly pulling out of Lyon.
In Lyon there’s Roddick, Robredo on opposite ends. Gasquet, Ljubicic, Monaco++ joins them. Other players to look out for is Grosjean (possible 2nd round against Roddick), Tsonga (already in 2nd), Mahut better at home?, Clement better at home?.
Lot of question marks, but I think Roddick has a good chance at the title, if Gasquet plays the Wimbledon match again, he could steal it from him.
In Basel, Roger Federer plays for the 2nd time in a row. He has “rested” a lot this year so this is a surprise actually. Strong players meet in Basel: Gonzalez, Ferrer, Blake, Berdych, Canas+++
In addition, there’s Kiefer, who jumped like 60 places on the ranking this week, Karlovic is always a threat, Nalbandian is back and dangerous, Wawrinka is at home but need to overcome Nalby in the first round. Lopez, Dancevic, Baghdatis, Nieminen…. a lot of good players.
In Russia the prize money is clearly largest this week, but the player field is the least attractive. Davydenko, Murray, Youzhny, Starace, Tursunov, Verdasco and more are top seeds. Then there’s Volandri, Gulbis (in 2nd), Bjorkman, Ancic, Mirnyi… and many more
My predicting skills are evidently poor but here goes nothing:
Lyon: Roddick?
Basel: Federer?
St Petersburg: Murray?
I think that ranking the best players according to their winning % is in many cases more accurate than point distribution. I wanted to prove to a friend that Davydenko doesn’t even belong in the top 10. I even said that Andy Murray could take his place. Am I right? Well.. I will do it again after Shanghai, but so far (as of Monday) here is the list based on winning %.
1. Roger Federer 90%
2. Rafael Nadal 84.9%
3. Novak Djokovic 82.3%
4. Andy Roddick 79.7%
5. David Ferrer 74.3%
6. Andy Murray 73.9%
7. Tommy Haas 71.7%
8. James Blake 70.4%
9. Juan Monaco 70.4%
10. Richard Gasquet 69.8%
11. Mikhail Youzhny 68.8%
12. Lleyton Hewitt 68.6%
13. Ivan Ljubicic 67.7%
14. Tomas Berdych 67.2%
15. Tommy Robredo 67.1%
16. Guillermo Canas 66.7%
17. Carlos Moya 66.7%
18. Nikolay Davydenko 64.9%
19. Juan Ignacio Chela 64.5%
20. Fernando Gonzalez 62.7%
Gonzalez is a good example of what I mean. He made the final of AO and had some good tournaments last year + final of Rome this year. But that’s pretty much it. Is he a top 10 player? 32-19 is not impressive at all. Doesn’t matter what titles or finals you achieved, but 32-19 is quite poor if you want to make the top 10 cut.
The ranking also shows the level of dominance from Federer and Nadal, and of course Djokovic as well. He has played a lot and made incredible runs at all slams but AO. Next year might, and should, be even better for him I presume.
Another example is Roddick vs. Davydenko. If these two met, I would put my savings on Roddick. Not only is he 4-0 h2h, but also wins roughly 80% of his matches. Davydenko wins only 65%. We know that Davydenko plays a lot! Still he has only played 77 matches this year, and Roddick 64. Roddick has skipped several important tournaments and had he played them he would have been on court almost as much as Davydenko, even with many fewer tournaments.
I don’t think it’s bad that the ranking favors players who play a lot, but I think that W-L ratio paints the picture more accurately.
other stats:
most wins: Djokovic 65
least wins: Gonzo 32
top loser: Davydenko 27!
bottom loser: Federer 6
Not only will he make Shanghai, but I think he’ll be a contender for the whole thing. He stepped off the court in Japan with a new title printed on his resume and is ready to take on the top 8. There are still a few tournaments to go, but it looks good for him. Not only in terms of point gain in the race, but also his play. Ferrer didn’t need too much time to completely tear up Gasquet in 2 very quick sets, 6-1, 6-2. Only Federer has the same tendency to beat the finalist with these figures.
Ferrer is listed as second seed in Stockholm for this upcoming week and has a chance to take on the defending champion James Blake in the final.
In Metz we have Robredo-Murray in the final. Rebredo needed 3 sets to beat Nicolas Mahut, while Murray took Canas down with 7-6, 6-4. Murray seems to be on a roll and will most likely take the title this week.
Two players who seem to aim high this fall. Ferrer will most likely make Shanghai, and Gasquet needs to do some serious damage in Madrid and Paris. I think he can make it, but he needs to get some help from the guys in front of him. Blake, Gonzalez and a few more have to mess up a little bit and clear the way for the great Richard. I don’t think he’s good enough to win Madrid or Paris, nor do I think he’ll make SF, but hey… if this guy is back he could do it!
Ferrer and Karlovic will clash in SF of Tokyo. Both players have had a good year and will battle it out tomorrow. Ferrer is a very good returner, so I don’t think Karlovic is a favorite at all. Ferrer is getting closer to Shaghai every minute he spends on court. On the other side, Gasquet has beaten Sela and is in the SF. Berdych/Verdasco is still running, but Berdych is a break up in the 3rd. I think we’ll see Ferrer against Berdych in the final. Although Gasquet vs. Berdych will be close I think.
In France the first QF is in progress. Andreev against Mahut. 1 all right now. Third set will be close it seems. There are some real interesting matches ahead. A shame there’s no place to watch them! Tsonga v. Murray, Robredo v. Grosjean, Korolev v. Canas
Maybe we will see Tsonga in his first ATP final? Grosjean winning @ home. Canas returning on the hard stuff? Korolev with a little breakthrough? I don’t know here. Open, open, open!
It is time to predict who’s up for the titles. In Tokyo we have 6 rounds for unseeded players and Bye’s for those seeded. It has to be said that when Michael Russel is seeded we are not in a very prestigous looking tournament, but nevertheless Tokyo had Federer on their board last year. If Ferrer can continue the play he showed us in New York, he can go all the way here too. However, Tokyo might turn out to be very hard to call. We have Berdych, Gasquet, Hewitt, Tursunov…. and the list goes on of potential title challengers. I think these four have a real chance of taking it. Berdych is always a danger, and is on his way back to the form he showed last year. Gasquet just won his first hard court tournament in India. Hewitt is always a title contender, this time no exception. Tursunov must try to ride a consistency wave to win titles, but he just captured the Bangkok title. Who would have thought that?
Can Ferrer win this one as top seed?
In France we have almost an equally close tournament. Top seed is Robredo and names like Canas, Murray, Mathieu, Kohlschreiber and Andreev appear on the list. Should also point to players like Grosjean, Mahut, Santoro, Wawrinka, Tsonga and Tipsarevic who all are in the underachiever category ranking-wise. I think Wawrinka and Grosjean can take the title withouth the need to be seeded. Santoro is always a question mark. Mahut and Tsonga… well personally I’m just waiting for a breakthrough from both these guys. Tipsarevic is also filled with potential. My prediction is that Robredo doesn’t win it, but I cannot call this one. There’s at least 12 players I would pick for the title. If I had to pick, I would go for either Wawrinka or:
I thought I’d start to write and comment on some of the players’ great groundstrokes, volleys, serves and other small techincal brilliances. First up, I wanted to say something about today’s only active legend. Roger Federer. Which stroke? ForeHAND! This is his best, his attacking shot, his comfort zone, his technical perfection.
Something that bothers me with this man is the fact that he looks like this is the easiest thing on earth. Swinging that racket, faster than almost anyone, and hit that ball anywhere he wants to hit it. Something which is common among today’s good forehands is supporting the racket with the left hand until the upper body as turned against the net.
This clip starts when Federer has taken back his rakcet with both hands, leaving his shoulder under his head. This enables him to use his upper body rotation and shoulder rotation to generate a good head speed. So far, it’s nothing special really. The only thing that a lot of players don’t do, is to hold their head locked in the same position. During the whole clip, Federer is extreme in his ways of not moving his head, almost at all really. You can see how his body rotates, while his head is focused on the ball.
He holds a semi-western grip on the racket which I think is optimal in terms of being able to variate the shots. It also anables him to get that extra racket head speed and brush up the ball at a perfect timing. One reason why he gets so much out of it is that he can use his wrist with a lot of flexibility and whip it more than other players would. This is something that can’t be taught and is an example of talent and practice. It’s not unique, but it is one of the best.
Contact point is well in front of him, with his left hand still out in front of him. This is a big difference. I’m no expert, but a whole lot of other player with big forehands have a different kind of rotations which brings their right part of their body in front of their left part. This means that their whole body rotates more than Federer. Their left arms are also locked in against their body during contact points to anable a faster rotation it seems. Gasquet is a player who seems to intentionally put his left arm up against his chest to anable that full rotation. In the clip Federer has a very calm rotation with, like we are used to see him, NO facial expression whatsoever. Also annoying! Looks like a robot!
And lastly, his eyes are on the damn ball at all time. Except for when he has hit it, his eyes stay in the contact point for more than seems reasonable. But it seems like maybe everybody should try and apply this technique. Wouldn’t you try to copy the some of the elements of the greatest forhand on the tour?!
Personally I cannot find a flaw with this forehand….. 10/10 for Federer
