Tennisful week

A couple of important notes from Marseilles is that Baghdatis has played a good tournament, reaching the semi final and losing to another “surprise” Ancic.  Ancic was the man who ended Tsonga’s ATP momentum. He then managed to take out Baggy in straight sets. Now Andy Murray is the man to beat in the final. He has also played convincingly, apart from being a few points away from defeat against Wawrinka.

I think this will be a real nice match. If Ancic can serve his best, Murray should be in trouble. In fact, Ancic is up 1-0 in straight sets against Murray. How about that!

Too bad I can’t watch it. I welcome some reports!

The clay tournament in Brasil was nothing but a routine from the best players. Moya and Almagro will fight like crazy for their first 2008 title

The most important news this week comes from Delray beach. You thought this would be an American tournament? You bet! 3 of 4 semi finalists from USA is not bad for a nation who struggles to find top 20 players. Who is that last guy? A Japaneese player (Nishikori) ranked 244!! He had 3-5 career record before the tournament, and his best result is the QF in Indianapolis last year. This guy hasn’t won any challenger, but has played consistent good tennis and has gone from no ranking to 244 in 2 years. Last night he saved 4 match points and was able to beat Sam Querrey. You think Blake is scared?

I hope for the sake of tennis that more players from China, Japan and the rest of Asia pushes up the rankings and makes tennis a WORLD sport. Like I’ve written before, if we go back a couple of decades, there weren’t too many nations on the ATP ranking. We know how good potentially Chinese and Japanese can become in any sport with increasing interest. I like, I like! But for Blakes’ sake I hope he will clinch his home title and return in the top 10.

Nadal headed for a PB

Personal Best that is. Less time on court can hardly hurt Nadal. Especially if knees and legs are still a concern this week. Now he only needs to get past Nieminen (never past QF in any slam) in the QF.  Nadal is 3-0 against the Finn, but there is a big BUT. Never met on hard court. I don’t know what surface Nieminen prefers but hard court must be his best chance against Nadal. I want to think that the Finn has a chance, but it doesn’t look good. Nadal is ready for his first hard court SF, and this is his best chance!

For tomorrow, there are a lot of goodies. Federer will beat Berdych. PERIOD. Blake-Cilic is another story. This past week was Cilic’s first win in a GS event ever! Born in 88 and big serve (that works) tells me this guy will hit top 10 in a short time. Blake is excpected to win and anything else with be a major upset. Cilic advancing to QF would be a BIG achivement. So.. at lot at stake here.

And for THE MATCH of the day. Hewitt-Djokovic. These two have met twice, both winning one. Their last encounter at Wimbledon was a tiebreak fest and a nailbiter. Given that Hewitt went to bed at sunrise yesterday does not help him. Djokovic has the advantage both physically and mentally. However, Hewitt is at home and won’t give it away. It will probably be Djokovic’s first real test. WATCH IT!

And lastly there is the civil war of Spain. Two guys with almost identical last names. Ferrero-Ferrer. The story here is that even if Ferrero is the one with most titles and experience in the top, Ferrer is 4-1 h2h. Ferrer kills Ferrero on clay, but the two HC matches were close battles. But you could ask yourself… isn’t Ferrer at his best these days? He probably wasn’t as good back when they met on HC. Stats tells me Ferrer takes it in 3. But I would certainly like to see this civil war go to 5 sets.

Just a last thought…. did you know that if Youzhny makes the final (which is not impossible) he will enter top 10 and pass players like Gonzo, Gasquet and Roddick?

Davis Cup Champions 2007

Bryan/Bryan d. Andreev/Davydenko  7-6, 6-4, 6-2

The US team has finally taken the big cup back home and ended the record 12 year drought. They fought off some big teams this year and the final win was certainly deserved by taking it at 3-0. Once again a great performance by the Bryans, staying consistent and firm on their play, letting the Russians to make the errors and desperate moves. Andreev/Davydenko were quite good on serve in the first set doing a lot of damage, even at the net. But as time and sets progressed, their confidence was reduced and they realized they could not cope with the world’s best doubles team.

This really does mean a lot for American tennis, which has hit a concrete wall these last years… or so they say. But winning DC is not an easy task, and the best team since 1995 have finally clinched it.

It will be interesting to see how Blake and Roddick can take this experience and use it next year, both in ATP and DC. The Bryans still have a lot to give it seems.

USA 2 Russia 0

The Davis Cup will be back in the states in a matter of few hours. Roddick and Blake played their best and made the situation so much more comfortable for themselves. The Russians must now win 3 straight matches if they want to keep the cup. Not gonna happen!
Bryans will take it tonight. Might be close match if the Bryans get all nervous, but I don’t think that will happen either.

The Russians have struggled a lot more to reach the final this year and are most likely going to lose to the best this year. But still, match needs to be played and it will be interesting to see how Davydenko will do on the volleying tonight. I suspect that is THE stroke he’s been working on in Portland.

Davis Cup final draw

The Russians have decided to exclude Davydenko from the singles matches, which I was sure they would. Davydenko has 0-11 against Roddick and Blake. So h2h-wise it was probably the right thing to do. In addition we know that Youzhny’s and Turnunov’s play is more effective on faster courts and it was probably the right thing to do.

Roddick and Blake have not played Youzhny and Tursunov a lot, and total h2h count between these four is 5-3 for the Americans. Roddick has had a few close matches with Youzhny, but has won the last 3. He also got that marathon clay-inferno last year where Tursunov took the decider at 17-15!! Don’t think it will happen in Portland.

Doubles? Well….. Bryan/Bryan is the world’s best doubles team. Andreev/Dayvdenko is NOT the best doubles team. The Bryans simply cannot lose this match.

Here is the final schedule:

Friday
Roddick v Tursunov
Blake v Youzhny

Saturday
Bryan/Bryan v Andreev/Davydenko

Sunday
Roddick v Youzhny
Blake v Tursunov

Who will win today?
Roddick gave Tursunov some of his Wimbledon-prep play at Queen’s club this year, taking the SF in straight sets. I see something like that happening again. Best of five can be in Tursunov’s favor but only if he plays well. Where has he been the last few months? Well last week he made the final of a challanger in Ukraine and lost in straight sets to world # 102! Last good performance was his title in Bangkok in September and Indianapolis this summer.
Roddick doesn’t lose too many DC matches on fast surface and he is so close to achieving one of his top goals in his career he can smell it already. Roddick takes it in 3

Blake has had the same type of form as Tursunov. Last good performance was Stockholm and then back in the US opens series period. Youzhny has had a few good performances, but not good enough to stick around and fight for 10th spot anymore. QF in Paris, SF in St.Petersburg are the only ones where he played ok. I think it’s more open than the first one, but Blake is better at closing up sets once he’s on a roll. Might be a match with several breaks each set or a close one with tie-breakers and excellent play. Lets hope for the latter. I think Blake will win, mostly because I doubt Youzhny will handle the pressure IF Roddick wins the first match.

Will Gonzalez qualify?

Well… he is history in Paris, taken out by Youzhny today and got only 1 point. That might be enough, but now his spot is open for anyone who can do some damage in Paris. Murray? Haas just won and got 15 points I think. Robredo? Blake? Plenty of players who can get around SF which brings 50 points. Gonzalez will be knocked out if two of these make SFs.

Race still open and we are in the final lap!

Let the last week of tennis begin!

For all players but 8. Paris is the end of the road for some 100+ players who play only ATP-level. I thought Federer would take a rest this week, but it seems that he wants to do all of the “mandatory” tournaments this year. If he takes this one too, 2007 has been almost as good as 2006 for the great Roger.

For Federer, the only threat (if he really is a threat anymore) is Nalbandian. We now know Nalbandian can beat Federer, but can he do a “Canas”. Something tells me… NO
Berdych needs to overcome both Ferrer and Federer if he wants to qualify for Shanghai
Murray, the poor bastard, must beat Djokovic to make it. Of course, these are estimates as the last (2) spots for Shanghai will depend on a lot of other players and their performance.

Blake has a tough draw too, so Blake’s way to Shanghai is longer than for example Haas. He has a couple of Qualifiers and Gonzo to shoot down for Shanghai. Ljubicic get Davydenko, which I think he’ll manage and can possibly qualify for Shanghai this year too.

Robredo has a fair chance as well, only big obstacle is Canas who needs to win the whole thing to really be sure for a spot in China.

If Federer and Nadal are motivated enough, it seems like a new encounter between the grand slammers on Sunday. Federer will of course win it…right?

Tennis.com gives an updated week 4 week overview of the race standings. As you can see there are plenty of players who still have a fair chance.
I think that Gonzalez will lose his spot only if he loses first and two other players get to the Final. SF gives 45 points and he is 51 ahead. He will not make it if for example Blake meets Haas in the final and he loses first match….. I think

My prediction is that Gonzo will buy his ticket this evening and joining him later this week will be either Murray or Haas. Hopefully Haas has a stable stomach all week!

Madrid Day 3

Nadal is back in action and back in winning action. He was down 1-3 in the first, but as the rust was cleaned off he got in full control and took the match in 2.
Djokovic struggled a bit against Verdasco. He took the first set in the breaker, which I was so sure he wouldn’t. Verdasco had so many chances in this match to, not only get important breaks, but get the whole match. 2nd set was even, but Djokovic breaking as he should. Then in the 3rd Verdasco was winning his service games at 40-0 and Djokovic had to face several break points. I think Verdasco had a total of 10 break points. How many did he convert? Not one! That’s where he lost the match. Had he broken at least 4 or 5, he would have won it.

Ancic is back, and playing well. It looked like top 10 play against Blake yesterday. While Ferrer is out, after the WC Lopez won in 2 close sets.
Kiefer defeated Youzhny… Youzhny seems to have problems with Germans?!
Ferrero defeated Moya… ready for the Djoker
AND Canas defeated Calleri in 3, and is ready for Roger. For me, that’s the match to watch today. Don’t think I’ll see it, so I excpect a full report from comments tomorrow!

At around 8pm, Nadal will face the in-form Murray. Murray is a potential Nadal beater. The match in AO was awesome and lets just hope that we see something similar tonight.

W-L ranking

I think that ranking the best players according to their winning % is in many cases more accurate than point distribution. I wanted to prove to a friend that Davydenko doesn’t even belong in the top 10. I even said that Andy Murray could take his place. Am I right? Well.. I will do it again after Shanghai, but so far (as of Monday) here is the list based on winning %.

1. Roger Federer 90%
2. Rafael Nadal 84.9%
3. Novak Djokovic 82.3%
4. Andy Roddick 79.7%
5. David Ferrer 74.3%
6. Andy Murray 73.9%
7. Tommy Haas 71.7%
8. James Blake 70.4%
9. Juan Monaco 70.4%
10. Richard Gasquet 69.8%
11. Mikhail Youzhny 68.8%
12. Lleyton Hewitt 68.6%
13. Ivan Ljubicic 67.7%
14. Tomas Berdych 67.2%
15. Tommy Robredo 67.1%
16. Guillermo Canas 66.7%
17. Carlos Moya 66.7%
18. Nikolay Davydenko 64.9%
19. Juan Ignacio Chela 64.5%
20. Fernando Gonzalez 62.7%

Gonzalez is a good example of what I mean. He made the final of AO and had some good tournaments last year + final of Rome this year. But that’s pretty much it. Is he a top 10 player? 32-19 is not impressive at all. Doesn’t matter what titles or finals you achieved, but 32-19 is quite poor if you want to make the top 10 cut.

The ranking also shows the level of dominance from Federer and Nadal, and of course Djokovic as well. He has played a lot and made incredible runs at all slams but AO. Next year might, and should, be even better for him I presume.

Another example is Roddick vs. Davydenko. If these two met, I would put my savings on Roddick. Not only is he 4-0 h2h, but also wins roughly 80% of his matches. Davydenko wins only 65%. We know that Davydenko plays a lot! Still he has only played 77 matches this year, and Roddick 64. Roddick has skipped several important tournaments and had he played them he would have been on court almost as much as Davydenko, even with many fewer tournaments.

I don’t think it’s bad that the ranking favors players who play a lot, but I think that W-L ratio paints the picture more accurately.

other stats:
most wins: Djokovic 65
least wins: Gonzo 32
top loser: Davydenko 27!
bottom loser: Federer 6

Madrid is up

… and Hewitt and Roddick have announced their withdrawal. Both have injuries. Hewitt is then out of Shanghai and Roddick should watch out for a hot Ferrer and perhaps a couple of other ones who could take him.
In the three ongoing tournaments, I’ve missed my predictions brutally. In Vienna Djokovic is ready to take on Wawrinka for the title, which he probably will. Then in Moscow, only Mathieu stands in Davydenko’s way to clinch his 2nd consecutive title at his home venue. While in Stockholm, after a close and well-fought battle, Johansson got past the undefeated Blake 3-6, 6-1, 7-6 to make the final. Karlovic blew past Haas and will be Johansson’s opponent.
Vienna: Djokovic
Moscow: Davydenko
Stockholm: Johansson

The draw for Madrid comes out today I guess, so no real predictions really possible to make. Plus, there’s still time for players to withdraw.