Wimbledon outlook

In one week we are wrapping up the first round of Wimbledon. I guess the draw will be out on Friday. This will probably help us see what players can make it far, besides the big 3. The following list of major contenders has been slightly modified due to last week. It served as an important indication of where the two, not so grassy-loving players behind Federer, are right after RG and just prior to Wimbledon. In reality the list of contenders is very short, but here are the top 10 men one should consider as most likely to see in the QFs before the draw is out.

1. Roger Federer
Simply couldn’t be a bigger favorite. Bigger than last year, even with the smaller gap between him and the two below. He has still the most impressive winning streak of 59!!! Hasn’t lost on grass since Ancic in 2002!! Has now tied Djokovic in W-L after this last week. Did I mention he has won Wimbledon 5 times in a row? Probably more convincing every year?! I cannot see how on earth there’s a reason to doubt him. Yes, Rafa probably wrote some history by bageling him in that last set in Paris, but once Federer hits his comfort zone, which he undoubtly will on grass, there’s no turning back. It’s not Federer who has to fight to get to the final, it’s Nadal. I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again… although he did win in Queen’s, he will be more likely taken out early than Federer. Nadal was so close to defeat both against Soderling AND Youzhny last year. I know you don’t like IF this and IF that, but Nadal will have to be superior like in Paris and win in straight sets to prevent being just a little too tired to give his 110% in the final. I assume he was just slightly more tired than Federer last year and could have been the reason he lost the final. That, and Federer not playing his best tennis throughout the match. Okay.. what’s the verdict? Until he loses!!! on grass, he will still sail as favorite and win it again this year. I said around 90% chance last year… because of Nadal’s obvious mental edge and improvement, and bad start to Federer’s 2008… 80% chance this year.

2. Rafael Nadal
Do I need to remind people than Spain has never won Wimbledon in the Open Era? Rafa could change that this year, but I still think NO. Here’s why… although he has improved his offense A LOT, he still is vulnerable to offensive players like Federer, like Soderling, like Youzhny, like Kendrick!! (gave him a hard time in 06)… But has beaten all but Federer. Reason being his fighting, his superhuman like attitude and raw willingness. The fact that he has moved inside the baseline for more shot-making will help him get throught the two weeks with more straight sets matches. The only exceptions I could think of, who could beat Nadal when not playing to his full potential are: Djokovic, Roddick, Nalbandian, Blake, Gasquet, Murray, Tsonga?, Stepanek!!, Youzhny…. and more flat hard hit, slicing, low bounce maniacs. On a good day, which he has 19 out of 20, he will tear them all apart. That’s why I can see him in the final this year as well, but maybe not good enough to beat the MAN. Why? His offensive play on clay worked, I don’t think it will on grass. Not that I compare Rafa to Roddick, but Federer’s finals in 03-05 showed why he loves attacking players on fast surfaces and not slow ones. He plays great tennis when the speed is high and bounce is low. So keep that forehand spinning like crazy and keep them deep as heck. Another 5 set match? Sure, why not?!

3. Novak Djokovic
Probably the poorest player on grass in the top 10. He told us why in London… it’s only the third season he plays on this surface. Just like Nadal, you just kinda need to adjusting time. But there’s not doubt he is still third favorite for the title. By far the most improved player this past year, and this past season. He went to the last four in 07 and something tells me he will do it again. Then the question is, who will he have to beat; Federer or Nadal? I’ll give him a 40-60 against Rafa and 10-90 against Federer. But maybe he sees it differently? I’m sure many players would rather play a more “normal”-hitting player like Federer rather than being shotgunned by Nadal’s top spin. I don’t know if he will get crowned Wimbledon champ, but he is right up there with the other two. If anything happens with the guys upstairs, he’s the favorite.

4. Andy Roddick
There’s no reason to downgrad this dude because of losing to the second best grass player. I said that the winner could be crowned the 2nd best on grass after Federer. Nadal won… You have to remember that besides the awful 2006, SF and 3rd round, this guy has a solid record in Wimbledon and Queen’s. A total of 60-12 on grass (compared to 75-11 for Federer) is second best actually. But still is an underdog for the title. Last year he had a weird loss to Gasquet in the SF and was crushed. Roddick being up 2-0 is usually a 99.5% safe bet for a win. I don’t know which side of the draw he wants to be on, but this year he is seeded 6th I believe and could meet one of the big 2 in QF. If he wants this title he will need to beat both Federer, Nadal and Djokovic back2back. He should be able to, at least, and he has shown us this year that it is possible. Let us just hope for his sake, that he didn’t push 100% against Rafa this week so that he could save the best for Wimbledon. Being injured is not somethign he wants in this part of the season. Can he beat the some of the big 3? I think he has a shot at Djoko and Rafa, but Federer…? No way. Like with anything else, as long as Roddick hasn’t been able to beat him before (0-3 on grass h2h) we won’t be able this time either. Prediciton for Roddick: optimistic – SF, realistic – QF, pessimistic – 4th round

5. Andy Murray
Now from here on, this gets tricky. I’d say that candidate-wise there are many players who could fit into the #5 position. Murray seems the obvious choice because he HAS improved since last year. He started 2008 very well and seems to have matured a little bit. If there’s a slams he wants and needs to win, it’s this one. I don’t give him much of a chance, but I could actually see him in a QF or SF beating one of the top 3. Murray is another candidate to take out Nadal IMO. I would love to see a match between the two. So for the sake of Britain’s tennis I put him as a #5.

6. Richard Gasquet
This guy goes this high ONLY… because of QF last year, beating Roddick in 5 AND because he seems better on grass now than he has done in general ALL year. After a horrible start to 2008, he seems to be back, or at least half-way. But we do know, and have seen all the talent in this guy so there’s no reason why cannot see him in a QF again. SF sounds hard, cause I think if the runs into any of the players above, it’s OUT. Prediction is L16 or QF.

7. Stepanek
Stepanek is always a dark horse. If he can beat Federer on any surface, why not on grass? He has had a rollercoaster year, but the Federer-win in Rome was probably the high point. I also liked how he gave Ferrer a hard time in Paris. He lost to Haas in Halle, but I don’t know if that is reason enough to doubt him for anything. Haas isn’t the most stable player out there so… However, Stepanek has a poor history at Wimbledon, considering his play is probably best suited for fast grass. Lost to PHM last year in the first round and Bjorkman in QF after some intense battles in 2006. The only reason for putting him up this high, is because he knows how to surprise, and if he deoesn’t run into Federer or Nadal early we could see him sail past some obvious victims. Should be noted that last year he was ranked 60-something.. now he is a happy camper inside top 15. QF or 4th round is most likely.

8. Ivo Karlovic
I don’t understand it! Why is Karlovic 0-3 the last 3 years?! The Nadal match should show that he should be fighting with the best on grass. For some reason, grand slamming is not his thing. Could 2008 be his year? Sure. Fact is that this past year has been his best overall. He hit #18 in April and is still #22 before going into Wimbledon. But I cannot see him losing to Mathieu, Ferrer, Tsonga, Youzhny… and I don’t know why. I actually thought he was going to beat Nadal the other day…. I say this will be his breakthrough year in Wimbledon with a 4th round.

9. David Ferrer
No I didn’t just forget him. Clay is his thing, he has improved on harder stuff, but grass is clearly not his thing. It could be this year, but Karlovic is a perfect example of a player I can see beating Ferrer early. Lost to Mathieu in straight sets last year and as a 5th seed I can see him do better, but not GREAT this year. 4th round?

10. Nikolay Davydenko
World #4!! For some strange reason grass is not this guy’s thing either. Altough he managed to break the Last 16 barrier last year, it’s obvious that his poor 4-6 record will not help him. But Davydenko is a fighter and has improved his game over the last couple of seasons. We could see him in another 4th round. You have to remember that he has never had a better start to a calendar year than 2008, winning a LOT more than he used to, winning in Miami and being a lot more consistent in general. I still put him in front of some other honorable mentions:

Mathieu, Nalbandian, Blake, Tsonga?, Gonzalez, Youzhny, Monfils, Kohlschreiber, Ancic!!, hell why not Gulbis?!

So, what’s your list?

New King of Queen’s

What a final! Rafael Nadal has finally cracked the Queen’s club code and won his first title on grass. 7-6, 7-5 took some time to complete because of some tight, incredible, high level rallies. It was the match of the tournament and one of the best so far this season. Somehow the Nadal-Djokovic rivalry usually is more entertaining than Fed-Nadal. When Nadal and Djokovic meet there are few errors and some stunning rallies and general quality of tennis. Maybe the Wimbledon final will be Nadal-Djokovic. Who knows?!

Going into the final, I had Nadal as a favorite because of his immense fighting abilities and reluctancy to go home empty handed. Djokovic played over any excpectations IMO, but just didn’t get the important points in the breaker and towards the end of the 2nd set. Being up 3-0 in the first probably marked the turning point in the match, in terms of momentum shift. Because from 3-3 or 4-4 it was a battle for every inch, every chalk mark and every serve. The tiebreak was one of the best in a long time and Djokovic, much like in Hamburg and Paris, had the goods, but Nadal came out victorious. Poor guy!

Nadal and Djokovic are now grass integrated and I bet Federer is sweating just a little bit more as he heads for Heathrow. Nadal has not lost since Ferrero in Rome, which wasn’t a real loss, so in reality the final in Miami was the last real loss for him. My only concern about that is getting worn out and tired before the 2nd week in Wimbledon. 

Federer, on the other hand, got his winning streak to 59 on grass and there’s no reason to predict Nadal as the winner of Wimbledon 2008 quite yet. I agree with Roddick, ”what does the guy need to do to show that he’s favorite?” Win Wimbledon 5 times in a row? Perfect record since 2002, meaning 59-0 in the last 6!! years!? I say Federer is still a big favorite until proven otherwise. And Djokovic? He will get his chances, but has to settle with #3 favorite for now.  

And the winner is…

Nadal! Two-time finalist Nadal beat two-time finalist and 4 times AC champ Roddick
and Djokovic! who completely anihilated poor big Nalby
Now the question is who is the best on grass so far this year?

Djokovic started the tournament poorly, but has mentioned the “transition from clay” as the main reason he gets better every day. Rafa was incredible yesterday and looked more than ready for Wimbledon. What struck me in the Nadal-Roddick match, was how incredible he served all the way through! Always high 1st serve % and kept Roddick guessing for either extreme right or left, with the lefty spin. I actually thougth he was able to use his serve better than what Roddick did. I was really impressed with Rafa, but Roddick seemed a little bored. I didn’t hear any reactions when winning, neither when losing and seemed like the Connors-effect has faded a little bit. I hope he’s more fired up for Wimbledon, or he’ll never get his hands on the golden trophy. Maybe the shoulder is still in the back of his head. I think all players prefer to be 100% for Wimbledon, than 99% in Queens against Rafa.

Then there was Federer who still, IMO, has a more impressive record on grass than Nadal on clay. Less titles, less matches, less factors like injuries and so on, but he hasn’t lost since frickin’ Ancic in 2002!!! And will Kohlschreiber do the damage in the final?! Might give him most headache of the week, but still a straight sets victory for Federer. My question is… is Rafa and Djoko better prepared for Wimbledon, having played some REAL grass threats, while Federer sailes past #340 something, Kiefer, Baggy and so on? We’ll see. But I think both finals are worth watching, if they don’t go at the same time, and show us who is in real grasssy form!

Oh, yeah… Davydenko-Robredo in the Warsaw final…. what a waste of ATP calendar space. Why not make grass season a week longer instead!?

Last 4, with several top 10 players

First of all… congratulations to Nadal. What a frickin’ fighter! You’d think that he was sick and tired of getting aced at the wrong moments during his QF against IVO.. but NO. As on clay, he has that sick ability to fight back and regain lost territory. 3 tiebreaks against Karlovic would certainly not indicate an easy match for the world #2. No rest allowed from the fireguns, tomorrow 4 times champ Roddick will fire his serves at Nadal. This could be interesting. Roddick and Nadal have been the only two in the Wimbledon finals since 2004. Roddick wins like 90+% on grass and Nadal has 1400+ points in the last couple of years. Wouldn’t you say that the winner of this match is the second best grass player? I would…

The other SF will be another surprise.. Djokovic! and last but not LEAST Nalbandian who just took care of Gasquet in a third set tiebreak. Djokovic looked good today, way better than against Tipsarevic and will need to play his best in order to defeat a Nalbandian on the rise. Of the two, Nalby can say that he has been in a grass final (Wimbledon) and Djokovic has not. Won’t matter. I think it will be close as heck.

My gut tells me Roddick is slightly better than Nadal on the Queen’s club grass, even though Nadal will fight superhumanly as always. And that Djokovic somehow is more consistent than Nalbandian, even on grass, and will reach his first grass final.(I hope that’s a fact!)

Federer sailed past Baghdatis today, and IMO will be meeting Blake in the final. Somehow Queen’s seems to be superior in importance to Halle. I say give them less points over there in Germany! Less status = less points, for crying out loud! No offense, it’s public opinion…

Why this week is important…

As we hit the QFs in the two grass tournaments, we get some very big and tight matches. These will be the only few days of grass play before Wimbledon for most top players. Here are some of the ones going at it today:

KARLOVIC – Nadal
Can Nadal deal with the serve? I think I’ve just analyzed the match…. if yes, then victory, if no, then loss. Nadal had some problems returning Nishikori’s serve at times, who is like half of Karlovic’s height. I think it’s all up to the Croation giant. Serving well gets him into the SF. Poor serving will be loss.

Andy vs. Andy (aka Andrew vs. Andrew)
This might not even be a match. Murray had problems with his finger after the match saying that he struggles signing autographs. So don’t excpect to see the Andys entering the court, and if they do… Roddick is favorite. I say they enter the court and Murray starts like 0-3 down and retires. NOT the best start on grass for Roddick. I’m sure he wants some real opposition before hitting Nadal or Karlovic.

Hewitt – Djokovic
MATCH OF THE DAY! I refuse to believe that it won’t be nasty and close. Djokovic didn’t look all that strong yesterday and Hewitt… well if this isn’t his favorite tournament I don’t know which is. I actually believe in Hewitt for this one, but it’s all up to the Djoker. Playing to his full potential this should be a win for him. We’ll see if it was the slippery or cool conditions which made him play less than optimal. Maybe it will be dry today.

Gasquet – Nalbandian
This could either be entertaining, or one of the most boring QF in history. If there is a key word to describe it, it’s consistency or lack of it. Great talented players who cannot win several matches in a row, or several sets, or games. I hope they’ve entered the grass season with their best play and may the best player win out there. And I think Nalbandian has a shot at this one.

HALLE:
In Germany the matches are not of the uppermost level. I don’t understand why the order of play is still not out. Federer will destroy Baghdatis. Anything else will be a very strange result, because Baggy hasn’t played much since 2007 ended. Kohlschreiber-Soderling will be a baseline inferno, where fewest errors will give you the winner. Kohl has a good chance at home. Wildcard Beck will contest Blake for a SF spot, but Blake should get this one. Kiefer-Llodra is an error depended match as well, where Kiefer might do a Hamburg-run again.

Back on grass

…and some silly tournament on clay in Poland. Cannot understand why they don’t play it some other time. The two biggies are Queen’s and Halle where defending champs are Roddick and Berdych. Roddick has a chance to become the only player to have won Queen’s five times and Federer will seek to get back in business in Germany.

Nadal and Djokovic have nothing to lose and much to gain by playing a good warm-up tournament for Wimbledon. I don’t know why Nadal isn’t as good at these first small steps on grass before Wimbledon, but surely goes in as a favorite to win Queen’s. Djokovic should also be able to hit the SF or F. What will be interesting is to see whether it’s still only Hewitt and Roddick who can win in London. Since 2000, Hewitt and Roddick have been the only player winning it. And we have to go back to 1996 to find a non-Aussie or non-American winner. Who?? Becker won in 1996! Isn’t it time for a local winner? Sure it is…

Andy Murray is up against Gulbis and will have to get past Roddick in a QF. A Nadal-Roddick SF might be an interesting one, seeing if Roddick can do a Dubai-run one more time. Also, Gasquet and Nalbandian are always dark horses on grass and their form can only go up at this point.

 

Wow…

Wow! I don’t know if Federer has ever been this humiliated in a GS event, or in any event for that matter. 6-1, 6-3, 6-0 is not a scoreline you’d excpect between the two best players of the world, but between the best and someone playing on semi-pro level. Today we saw a difference of class, a difference of quality and a frequent disbelief from the stands. At what point was it ever likely to see Nadal get 6-0 against Federer on any surface? Federer is usually good enough to prevent that from happening. Number aren’t all that important, but what it is important is Nadal and his 4th title in Paris, which makes him still undefeated. 28-0!!!

What was the match all about? Nadal hitting his usual inhuman shots, defending like a robot and getting many of the close call balls on the right part of the line and net. Federer was trying to attack, but was met with answers throughout the entire match. Federer tried to prevent Nadal from hitting his backhand… it seemed like that the backhand was the only shots he could attack with, because his forehand was error-filled. It just didn’t work this time either! OK, the more fair scoreline would have been closer, but it would not be 4 sets, which makes it the most one-sided meeting the two have shared. SICK, SICK, SICK and Nadal continues to go as virtually unbeatable on clay.  Can’t wait for the grass to see who’s the boss there!

Rafael vs. Roger

 

Who will go victorious this time? Federer seeks his only missing slam and Nadal wants a 4th consecutive RG trophy.

If you live in Europe and watch Eurosport, you probably saw Wilander’s take on tomorrow’s final. I think he made a few important points. First of all, h2h is always important regardless of surface and conditions. You have to remember that Fed’s bad stat against Nadal is more due to the style Nadal’s plays rather than surface problems and details in the game. Federer struggled big time with Nadal on hard courts in 04-05 and even 06. After Dubai in 2006 he sort of, Federer started to regain control on his so called favorite surface. There’s something about the h2h stats that is really worth mentioning. After 2006 Roland Garros final Nadal was 6-1 against Federer! 2 of them on hard. The one victory for Fed came in Miami, where the match went to 5 sets and was very close to a 0-3 loss in the third set tie-break. Nadal was still 18 at this point and he hasn’t gotten any worse on the hard stuff! That’s something one should keep in mind when looking at how players generally improve their overall game. What could you excpect from an 18 year old and a then 23 year old Fed? My point is that Nadal has IMPROVED on hard, but has lost the last 2 on hard + the two Wimbledon’s and Federer has definetely improved on clay. If you watch the previous finals the quality has just kept improving every clay season.

Another point Wilander made is that Federer has a greater chance to do something this year, not because Nadal hasn’t gotten any better, because he has, but as an offensive player he will be the one who decides how many of the rallies will turn out. 2006 he stayed back on the baseline way too much. 2007 was better, but still too little mixing. This year he has been a breath of fresh air on clay, playing some serve-volley, right timed approaches, drop shots and angled shots. Mixing it up is never bad, if you’re on Fed’s level. What will determine the outcome is Federer’s error %age. If the mixing up goes wrong, Nadal will win. If the first serve let’s him down, Nadal will win. If he gets a little hesitant on footwork, shot-making, approaching, ANY part of the game… Nadal will win!! So IMO it is Federer’s game to lose because he will be the one attacking and hopefully less defending. Sadly, Nadal seems to be more confident than ever and could pull out a 2-2-2 win, but if Fed stays on top of his game for the entire match, it could go both ways.

So what is the conclusion. I really hope Federer could win it, but he really needs to approach perfection against Nadal. I would suggest that if Nadal starts hitting his wicked forehand to Fed’s backhand he should try to use the super sliced shot he so often makes on the return of first serve. Some of them have been so efficient that they turned out as perfect drop shots. That’s my only technical advice for Fed.

To prevent this entry from being one-sided, I can only suggest that Nadal keeps up the good work. I cannot see how he could improve the clay court game any further. So in this sense, he has much more to lose if his game is slightly off. But 1st serve and minimal number of errros will be key, as always.

Prediciton? I’m gonna go with Federer because I think it’s time he gets this last slam. But I couldn’t think of a better 2nd choice in Nadal. For me, the RG-Wimbledon exchange should happen this year.
Federer in 4 sets with a killer tie-break in the 4th!
 

What year is this again?!

This is the third year now with a Fed-Rafa final and a 4th year where they meet in RG. Could it be that the scores will be exactly like last year and just call it a repeat?! Apart from Monfils, there aren’t too many things that separate the event from las year, with the one this year.

Nadal had no real problems taking care of Djokovic. There were some phenomenal rallies and Djokovic contributed to a lot of the action, but was always just a little too late at the key shots. First set was as tight as it could get. It could have gone either way, but Nadal’s consistency was stunning. I remember seeing 1 unforced from Nadal after about 30min of play. Then in the second set, both players lowered the quality of their games, but Nadal never goes below 99.5%. Djokovic started hitting more and more errors and serving wasn’t helping him either. The third set was really not something you’d expect in a SF of a Grand Slam. Nadal taking an early 3-0 lead, only to be hunted back to 3-3 after Djokovic went for his shots almost at any opened opportunity. That why he actually had a chance to secure that third set going into 4-4 and 5-5. A tie-break would normally favor smart serving Djokovic, but got to 0-6 after a couple of minutes. The END. He once again went for the big shots, but this time hit them far wide or under the net. Nothing he could do, nothing he could have done better, except for maybe playing overall better in the 2nd set. Nadal looks dangerous in every way possible. Watch out Federer, this could get ugly.

Federer on the other hand seemed to be playing poorly, but the stats generally don’t lie. It was Monfils, who started the match poorly, but as it progressed got better and better. He was actually giving Fed a hard time at the baseline, at the net, with the defense. Much of his game plan seemed to work OK. But OK is not good enough and even though he took the 2nd set when he went for some big shots and with a little Federer error-help, he had no chance in reality to stay consitent enough to win it. But taking Federer to 5-5 in the 4th set, that’s just more than any thought he could do. So, Federer fans, I can assure you that Federer didn’t play poorly yesterday, it was Monfils who stepped up even further. However, if he wants to win tomorrow, he has to raise his baseline play further. Serving was good at 71%, net play was efficient, although the errors he made were SIMPLE, he actually managed to get the hard ones, which might be a good thing against Nadal!

Oh well, first it’s the ladies and Ivanovic-Safina. I actually want both of them to win. Ivanovic because she’s probably the hottest #1 ranked player ever, and because she was very close last year and deserves the title. Safina is 13th seed and has had a very good spring and also deserves to be in the final. I want her to win because her brother is cool and there’s nothing like having siblings be grand slam champions. I say Ivanovic in 3.

How about those SFs, huh?

And the winner is……………..MONFILS!! Not the winner of Roland Garros, but the winner of the critical LAST SF spot available. Isn’t that how you see it? I mean, Davydenko is always a question mark in regards to how far he can get, although RG was probably the best bet that he could once again reach the SF. Ferrer was up close to, but Monfils just came out so much stronger. So congrats to Monfils! Just a reminder, Monfils is French! A French player in the SF of RG doesn’t happen every year and this is the time to really hope that they get somethign to cheer about in Paris. Or do we all want Fed-Nadal, AGAIN?!?!

I see no point in analyzing tomorrow’s matches. I think the winners will be Federer and Nadal. Federer because he is completely starved in Paris, and because Nadal has never looked this strong in Paris (really weird fact) and still undefeated at age 22 (sick, sick, sicker fact!!)
But what kind of damage could Monfils and Djoko do to get a Serbian-French final?
Monfils has got to get Federer running around and varying with big shots on both sides. Federer seems to enjoy predictable players, though still the best anticipator I’ve ever seen. My point is that he usually destroys players that are too predictable. On the top of my head I have Davydenko and Roddick as examples. There are probably a bunch of them…

Also, being patient might be a way to go against Federer. If he start hitting errors (I said IF!) then he might get frustrated enough to infuriate the edgy home crowd and turn them against him. He won’t get too much support tomorrow I presume, but Monfils has to really overplay and Federer be on a lower level if he want a French winner. I say Federer in 4, to be nice. For all I care, I hope I’m wrong.

Djokovic played his best tennis in Hamburg. P-E-R-I-O-D. While watching the match I remember thinking that there was nothing he could have done much better in order to win. Yes, there was an important point here and there, but it all came down to Nadal’s errors. Nadal is proably one of the most consistent players, but I’m surprised so few mention his rare, but still quite a few bad games and even sets (no, not in Paris, not this year). But rarely would you go and say that Nadal played an awful match. That’s why he is a champ and still an underachiever ranking and GS-wise. But still, and no offense to Djoko, Nadal in 3!!!

So match of the day tomorrow?! I say watch both! Monfils is able to pull a miracle, and Djokovic has plenty of talent and was actually dangerously close in Hamburg. Tennis matches are a lot closer than they sometimes seem, and even the two best players have won a big chunk of titles with the closest matches ever seen. That’s why tomorrow, as always!, anything can happen!